Average U.S. Mortgage Rates 2022

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Last Update: January 19, 2022 Banking Studies
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With the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates to help ease Americans’ financial burden during the coronavirus pandemic, average U.S. mortgage rates fell victim to the downward spiral.

And as of Dec. 23, 2021, the latest Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows that the average 30-Year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) is 3.05%, and the average 15-Year FRM is 2.30%. For context, the former has increased by a spread of 39 basis points (0.39%) year-over-year (YoY), while the latter has increased by a spread of 11 basis points (0.11%).

Mortgage Type: Average Interest Rate (Dec. 23, 2021): Change:
Average 30-Year FRM 3.05% 0.39%
Average 15-Year FRM 2.30% 0.11%
Average 5/1-Year ARM 2.37% -0.42%

For your reference: the average 30-Year and 15-Year FRM figures apply to conventional mortgages with 80% loan-to-value ratios.

In addition, an FRM is an amortizing loan where your interest rate and monthly mortgage payment stay constant throughout the life of the loan. Conversely, an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) amortizes with a variable interest rate, and the rate changes throughout the loan’s life.

And the average 5/1-Year ARM?

Embedded with both fixed and variable components, a 5/1-Year ARM is a hybrid mortgage where the 5 implies a fixed rate for the first five years with a variable rate after that.

Average Mortgage Rates 2022: Statistics and Key Findings

National Statistics:

As of Dec. 23, 2021, the latest Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows that the average 30-Year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) is 3.05%, and the average 15-Year FRM is 2.30%. The former has increased by a spread of 39 basis points (0.39%) year-over-year (YoY), while the latter has increased by a spread of 11 basis points (0.11%).

The average 30-Year FRM has declined by 39% since Q1 2010, while the average 15-Year FRM and the average 5/1-Year ARM have decreased by 47% and 44%, respectively, during that same timeframe. On top of that, the trio has declined by 18%, 27%, and 30%, respectively, relative to Q4 2019.

The average 30-year origination fee rate (0.68%) is the same as in Q1 2010, while the 15-year origination fee rate (0.67%) has increased by 4%, and the average 5/1-year origination fee rate (0.40%) has decreased by 32%.

By State:

myFICO’s Home Purchase Center shows that average mortgage rates are similar across all states. As such, the national average 30-Year FRM is 3.47%, and the average monthly payment is $1,344.

By Credit Score:

Borrowers with FICO Scores ranging from 760-850 receive an average 2.83% annual percentage rate (APR) on 30-Year FRMs. Conversely, borrowers with FICO Scores ranging from 620-639 receive an average 4.42% APR on 30-Year FRMs.

Originations By Credit Score:

The Fed’s latest findings in its Household Debt and Credit report show that mortgage originations — which tally Americans’ new mortgage balances and refinances — were nearly $1.115 trillion in the third quarter of 2021.

69% of those new/refinanced loans came from Americans with an Equifax Risk Score of 760 or more. Conversely, only 5.1% came from Americans with a credit score of 659 or less.

While mortgage activity has increased recently for borrowers with low credit scores, the <620 bracket is the only cohort still operating below Q4 2019 levels.

States With Highest/Lowest Credit Scores:

Residents of Hawaii (772), Minnesota (771), and Oregon (770) have the highest average FICO Scores among the top ten states where Americans hold mortgage debt. And not far behind, Hawaii (5.97x) and Oregon (4.30x) rank first and fourth among states with the highest income multipliers.

Georgia (745), Tennessee (745), and Kentucky (745) have the highest average FICO Scores among the bottom ten states where Americans hold mortgage debt. Likewise, Georgia (3.50x) and Tennessee (3.32x) have income multipliers ranking first and third.

Average Savings on Mortgage Refinancing:

Borrowers who refinanced their mortgages in 2021 saw their average mortgage rate decline by a spread of 1.23%.

Borrowers that opted for a cash-out refinance saved an average of $34 on their annual payments, while borrowers that opted for a non-cash-out refinance saved an average of $2,741, and borrowers that engaged in some form of mortgage refinancing saved an average of $1,616.

Banks Tightening Mortgage Lending Standards:

The net percentage of U.S. banks tightening their mortgage lending standards on subprime mortgages and government mortgages are 14.3% and -1.9%, respectively.

Mortgage Payments and Disposable Income:

Americans allocated 3.81% of their disposable income to their mortgage payments in Q2 2021. Moreover, the figure has declined by 40% since Q1 2010.

Mortgage Delinquency Rates:

U.S. commercial banks’ delinquency rate on single-family residential mortgages fell to an all-time low of 2.27% in the third quarter of 2021. Moreover, the metric has declined by 80% since Q1 2010 and is down by 3% from its pre-pandemic level (2.35% in Q4 2019).

Average U.S. Mortgage Rates 2022: Charts, Graph, Analysis

Historical Average Mortgage Rates

With U.S. mortgage rates stuck in their lower-for-longer trend, the average 30-Year FRM has declined by 39% since Q1 2010. And one-upping their counterpart, the average 15-Year FRM and the average 5/1-Year ARM have decreased by 47% and 44%, respectively, during that same timeframe.

On top of that, the trio has declined by 18%, 27%, and 30%, respectively, relative to Q4 2019.

Period: Average 30-Year FRM: Average 15-Year FRM: Average 5/1-Year ARM:
2010:Q1 5.00% 4.38% 4.20%
2010:Q2 4.92% 4.30% 3.99%
2010:Q3 4.45% 3.92% 3.64%
2010:Q4 4.44% 3.82% 3.51%
2011:Q1 4.85% 4.12% 3.73%
2011:Q2 4.65% 3.84% 3.45%
2011:Q3 4.29% 3.47% 3.12%
2011:Q4 4.00% 3.30% 2.95%
2012:Q1 3.92% 3.19% 2.84%
2012:Q2 3.79% 3.04% 2.82%
2012:Q3 3.55% 2.84% 2.75%
2012:Q4 3.36% 2.67% 2.72%
2013:Q1 3.50% 2.74% 2.65%
2013:Q2 3.67% 2.84% 2.68%
2013:Q3 4.44% 3.48% 3.19%
2013:Q4 4.29% 3.35% 2.99%
2014:Q1 4.36% 3.40% 3.08%
2014:Q2 4.23% 3.31% 3.02%
2014:Q3 4.14% 3.26% 2.99%
2014:Q4 3.96% 3.17% 2.98%
2015:Q1 3.72% 3.01% 2.93%
2015:Q2 3.82% 3.06% 2.91%
2015:Q3 3.95% 3.15% 2.94%
2015:Q4 3.90% 3.12% 2.97%
2016:Q1 3.74% 3.02% 2.90%
2016:Q2 3.59% 2.85% 2.80%
2016:Q3 3.45% 2.75% 2.77%
2016:Q4 3.84% 3.10% 3.03%
2017:Q1 4.17% 3.40% 3.22%
2017:Q2 3.98% 3.24% 3.13%
2017:Q3 3.88% 3.17% 3.18%
2017:Q4 3.92% 3.29% 3.27%
2018:Q1 4.28% 3.74% 3.58%
2018:Q2 4.54% 4.01% 3.76%
2018:Q3 4.57% 4.03% 3.88%
2018:Q4 4.78% 4.21% 4.07%
2019:Q1 4.37% 3.82% 3.87%
2019:Q2 4.01% 3.46% 3.63%
2019:Q3 3.66% 3.13% 3.40%
2019:Q4 3.70% 3.16% 3.39%
2020:Q1 3.52% 2.98% 3.26%
2020:Q2 3.24% 2.71% 3.20%
2020:Q3 2.95% 2.46% 2.97%
2020:Q4 2.76% 2.29% 2.89%
2021:Q1 2.88% 2.28% 2.83%
2021:Q2 3.00% 2.31% 2.67%
2021:Q3 2.87% 2.17% 2.46%
2021:Q4 3.05% 2.30% 2.37%

Historical Average Mortgage Origination Rates

With mortgage origination fees increasing borrowers’ out-of-pocket expenses, the expenditures compensate lenders for providing loans. For context, origination fees are quoted as a percentage of the mortgage loan and are paid upfront when the application is processed.

And interestingly, while the average 30-year mortgage rate has declined precipitously, Freddie Mac’s data shows that the average 30-year origination fee rate (0.68%) is the same as in Q1 2010. Even more revealing, the 15-year origination fee rate (0.67%) has increased by 4% since Q1 2010. However, the average 5/1-year origination fee rate (0.40%) has decreased by 32% since Q1 2010.

On the flip side, all three have increased relative to Q4 2019. For example, since the coronavirus pandemic struck, the 30-year, 15-year, and 5/1-year origination fee rates have increased by 17%, 24%, and 11%, respectively.

Period: Average 30-Year FRM: Average 15-Year FRM: Average 5/1-Year ARM:
2010:Q1 0.68% 0.64% 0.59%
2010:Q2 0.69% 0.66% 0.65%
2010:Q3 0.71% 0.65% 0.64%
2010:Q4 0.78% 0.72% 0.63%
2011:Q1 0.72% 0.72% 0.65%
2011:Q2 0.69% 0.70% 0.58%
2011:Q3 0.72% 0.65% 0.57%
2011:Q4 0.74% 0.77% 0.58%
2012:Q1 0.78% 0.79% 0.72%
2012:Q2 0.73% 0.68% 0.64%
2012:Q3 0.66% 0.63% 0.61%
2012:Q4 0.70% 0.63% 0.62%
2013:Q1 0.75% 0.72% 0.58%
2013:Q2 0.75% 0.71% 0.52%
2013:Q3 0.73% 0.71% 0.56%
2013:Q4 0.70% 0.66% 0.44%
2014:Q1 0.68% 0.65% 0.46%
2014:Q2 0.62% 0.55% 0.42%
2014:Q3 0.56% 0.56% 0.47%
2014:Q4 0.51% 0.52% 0.50%
2015:Q1 0.62% 0.58% 0.46%
2015:Q2 0.63% 0.56% 0.46%
2015:Q3 0.61% 0.60% 0.45%
2015:Q4 0.61% 0.57% 0.43%
2016:Q1 0.55% 0.48% 0.46%
2016:Q2 0.54% 0.49% 0.49%
2016:Q3 0.52% 0.49% 0.45%
2016:Q4 0.52% 0.51% 0.42%
2017:Q1 0.48% 0.48% 0.41%
2017:Q2 0.50% 0.49% 0.46%
2017:Q3 0.52% 0.50% 0.47%
2017:Q4 0.49% 0.49% 0.38%
2018:Q1 0.52% 0.50% 0.39%
2018:Q2 0.46% 0.41% 0.32%
2018:Q3 0.48% 0.45% 0.32%
2018:Q4 0.48% 0.44% 0.30%
2019:Q1 0.45% 0.41% 0.29%
2019:Q2 0.51% 0.45% 0.39%
2019:Q3 0.54% 0.51% 0.37%
2019:Q4 0.58% 0.54% 0.36%
2020:Q1 0.71% 0.72% 0.25%
2020:Q2 0.74% 0.70% 0.36%
2020:Q3 0.79% 0.75% 0.29%
2020:Q4 0.70% 0.61% 0.29%
2021:Q1 0.68% 0.63% 0.28%
2021:Q2 0.68% 0.63% 0.27%
2021:Q3 0.66% 0.64% 0.29%
2021:Q4 0.68% 0.67% 0.40%

Average Mortgage Rates by State

While many other loan metrics differ by state, myFICO’s Home Purchase Center shows that average mortgage rates are similar across all states. As such, FICO’s data reveals that the national average 30-Year FRM is 3.47%, and the average monthly payment is $1,344.

For context, the data assumes a single-family residential mortgage of $300,000 with an 80% LTV ratio.

Average Mortgage Rates by Credit Score

myFICO’s portal also breaks down mortgage rates by credit score. And as expected, borrowers with the highest FICO Scores often receive the lowest mortgage rates, while borrowers with the lowest FICO scores often receive the highest mortgage rates.

For example, borrowers with FICO Scores ranging from 760-850 receive an average 2.83% annual percentage rate (APR) on 30-Year FRMs. Conversely, borrowers with FICO Scores ranging from 620-639 receive an average 4.42% APR on 30-Year FRMs.

FICO Score Range: Average 30-Year FRM: Average Monthly Mortgage Payment:
760-850 2.83% $1,237
700-759 3.05% $1,273
680-699 3.23% $1,302
660-679 3.44% $1,337
640-659 3.87% $1,410
620-639 4.42% $1,505

Mortgage Originations by Credit Score

The Fed’s latest findings in its Household Debt and Credit report show that mortgage originations — which tally Americans’ new mortgage balances and refinances — were nearly $1.115 trillion in the third quarter of 2021.

However, 69% of those new/refinanced loans came from Americans with an Equifax Risk Score of 760 or more. Conversely, only 5.1% came from Americans with a credit score of 659 or less.

Interestingly, Americans in the lowest credit score bracket (<620) saw their mortgage originations increase by 34% YoY in Q3. In contrast, Americans in the highest credit score bracket (760+) saw their mortgage originations increase by 2% YoY.

However, the data results from the flurry that occurred during the height of the COVID-19 outbreak. For example, mortgage originations among the 760+ credit score bracket are 61% above where they were pre-pandemic (Q4 2019). Conversely, mortgage originations among the <620 credit score bracket are 14% below where they were pre-pandemic.

As a result, while mortgage activity has increased recently for borrowers with low credit scores, the <620 bracket is the only cohort still operating below Q4 2019 levels.

Period (Billions): <620: 620-659: 660-719: 720-759: 760+: Total:
2010:Q1 $24.1 $19.4 $53.1 $100.7 $182.3 $379.5
2010:Q2 $16.5 $20.1 $52.4 $100.6 $176.1 $365.8
2010:Q3 $17.6 $16.6 $60.0 $115.7 $179.2 $389.1
2010:Q4 $18.9 $18.3 $47.6 $122.9 $255.3 $463.0
2011:Q1 $13.0 $15.9 $48.0 $134.5 $285.8 $497.2
2011:Q2 $11.6 $15.3 $41.6 $97.4 $185.9 $351.9
2011:Q3 $12.9 $15.8 $41.0 $93.6 $129.0 $292.3
2011:Q4 $15.7 $14.6 $48.4 $106.4 $219.0 $404.1
2012:Q1 $13.0 $17.1 $45.9 $100.3 $235.5 $411.8
2012:Q2 $10.8 $16.9 $53.2 $129.0 $251.9 $461.8
2012:Q3 $15.4 $21.5 $60.1 $145.0 $278.5 $520.6
2012:Q4 $16.4 $23.3 $71.7 $155.6 $285.8 $552.8
2013:Q1 $16.0 $19.5 $68.4 $140.6 $332.4 $576.8
2013:Q2 $18.4 $20.9 $77.1 $158.8 $303.8 $578.9
2013:Q3 $16.8 $24.7 $78.7 $149.9 $278.6 $548.8
2013:Q4 $16.2 $18.9 $65.7 $134.6 $216.0 $451.4
2014:Q1 $16.2 $21.0 $50.6 $92.1 $151.9 $331.9
2014:Q2 $11.8 $15.5 $49.3 $77.0 $132.1 $285.7
2014:Q3 $16.4 $15.2 $61.1 $100.7 $143.6 $337.0
2014:Q4 $14.9 $22.0 $62.4 $100.6 $154.2 $354.2
2015:Q1 $15.0 $13.9 $60.2 $97.5 $182.0 $368.5
2015:Q2 $16.2 $21.7 $73.5 $122.1 $232.3 $465.7
2015:Q3 $15.9 $23.6 $73.4 $88.5 $287.7 $489.1
2015:Q4 $21.4 $24.0 $77.4 $70.8 $243.3 $436.9
2016:Q1 $15.4 $17.9 $64.4 $65.2 $225.7 $388.6
2016:Q2 $14.6 $24.7 $71.1 $76.2 $240.1 $426.6
2016:Q3 $15.8 $23.5 $78.6 $76.4 $282.9 $477.1
2016:Q4 $22.8 $28.0 $100.6 $105.2 $360.2 $616.8
2017:Q1 $17.7 $22.8 $74.2 $77.7 $299.1 $491.4
2017:Q2 $15.2 $22.8 $73.0 $81.0 $229.4 $421.5
2017:Q3 $18.6 $23.9 $84.0 $78.9 $274.0 $479.4
2017:Q4 $20.4 $23.7 $74.9 $76.3 $256.3 $451.5
2018:Q1 $14.9 $21.0 $66.9 $76.4 $248.7 $427.9
2018:Q2 $16.1 $21.1 $71.7 $73.9 $254.7 $437.5
2018:Q3 $14.5 $23.8 $73.8 $79.6 $253.6 $445.3
2018:Q4 $15.2 $23.9 $68.2 $61.9 $232.3 $401.5
2019:Q1 $14.3 $19.2 $55.6 $61.2 $193.7 $344.0
2019:Q2 $18.4 $26.9 $70.7 $78.2 $279.8 $474.1
2019:Q3 $18.3 $23.6 $78.2 $86.3 $321.9 $528.3
2019:Q4 $26.9 $28.5 $98.4 $119.6 $478.6 $752.0
2020:Q1 $19.3 $24.1 $84.0 $109.1 $425.3 $661.7
2020:Q2 $16.7 $26.6 $94.2 $120.6 $588.3 $846.4
2020:Q3 $17.3 $28.5 $106.8 $142.4 $754.3 $1,049.3
2020:Q4 $20.7 $32.4 $124.9 $158.6 $838.0 $1,174.6
2021:Q1 $15.7 $29.2 $110.7 $151.7 $831.1 $1,138.4
2021:Q2 $19.2 $34.7 $127.8 $167.8 $868.3 $1,217.8
2021:Q3 $23.2 $33.5 $130.4 $158.4 $769.0 $1,114.6

States With Highest/Lowest Credit Scores

The latest data from Experian shows that higher credit scores often lead to higher income multipliers. We calculate the metric by dividing states’ average mortgage balance by their average income. And when analyzing the top 10 states on Experian’s list, we found that credit scores and income multipliers show a correlation of 0.56.

To that point, residents of Hawaii (772), Minnesota (771), and Oregon (770) have the highest average FICO Scores among the top ten states where Americans hold mortgage debt. And not far behind, Hawaii (5.97x) and Oregon (4.30x) rank first and fourth among states with the highest income multipliers.

Thus, there is a moderate correlation between high FICO Scores and mortgage lenders’ willingness to extend large amounts of credit relative to Americans’ annual incomes.

Top 10 States: Average FICO Score: Average Mortgage Balance: Average Annual Income: Income Multiplier:
Hawaii 772 $362,947 $60,807 5.97x
Minnesota 771 $190,516 $64,674 2.95x
Oregon 770 $251,687 $58,544 4.30x
D.C. 769 $461,555 $90,043 5.13x
Washington 768 $300,489 $70,441 4.27x
California 767 $391,638 $74,304 5.27x
Massachusetts 767 $274,618 $81,995 3.35x
Wisconsin 767 $151,053 $57,360 2.63x
New Hampshire 765 $195,210 $68,126 2.87x
Vermont 765 $159,231 $60,396 2.64x

On the flip side, the is an immaterial correlation (0.29) between high FICO Scores at the low end of the distribution and states’ income multipliers. However, the pattern is still relatively present.

For example, Georgia (745), Tennessee (745), and Kentucky (745) have the highest average FICO Scores among the bottom ten states where Americans hold mortgage debt. Likewise, Georgia (3.50x) and Tennessee (3.32x) have income multipliers ranking first and third.

Bottom 10 States: Average FICO Score: Average Mortgage Balance: Average Annual Income: Income Multiplier:
Mississippi 728 $130,286 $44,128 2.95x
Louisiana 734 $162,197 $53,281 3.04x
West Virginia 737 $118,743 $46,343 2.56x
Texas 738 $198,694 $57,794 3.44x
Arkansas 739 $140,541 $49,079 2.86x
Oklahoma 739 $146,864 $51,564 2.85x
Alabama 740 $152,988 $48,133 3.18x
Georgia 745 $190,667 $54,442 3.50x
Kentucky 745 $135,281 $49,259 2.75x
Tennessee 745 $176,842 $53,340 3.32x

Average Savings on Mortgage Refinancing

After Freddie Mac conducted an in-depth study on Americans’ mortgage refinancing activity that spans through Q2 2021, the government-sponsored enterprise released some exciting results.

For example, borrowers who refinanced their mortgages in 2021 saw their average mortgage rate decline by a spread of 1.23%. Moreover, borrowers that opted for a cash-out refinance saved an average of $34 on their annual payments.

Likewise, borrowers that opted for a non-cash-out refinance saved an average of $2,741 on their annual payments. And on a consolidated basis, borrowers that engaged in some form of mortgage refinancing saved an average of $1,616 on their yearly costs.

As a result, American homeowners’ willingness to barter with lenders proved beneficial in 2021.

Year: New Minus Old Mortgage Rate: Old Minus New Cash-Out Payment: Old Minus New Non-Cash Out Payment: Old Minus New: All Refinances:
1998 -1.17% $1,123 $2,184 $790
1999 -1.04% $1,893 $2,243 $77
2000 0.30% $5,287 -$1,167 $3,765
2001 -1.10% $2,094 -$2,175 $45
2002 -1.22% $1,699 $2,056 $103
2003 -1.46% $724 $2,176 $1,133
2004 -1.10% $1,989 $1,869 $62
2005 -0.53% $3,277 -$1,657 $1,978
2006 0.16% $4,930 -$1,376 $4,237
2007 0.07% $4,294 -$1,805 $3,329
2008 -0.38% $3,118 -$2,100 $1,037
2009 -1.08% $647 $2,838 $1,838
2010 -1.15% $655 $2,813 $2,344
2011 -1.28% $675 $2,892 $2,470
2012 -1.69% $390 $3,585 $3,281
2013 -1.81% $89 $3,689 $3,294
2014 -1.32% $1,278 $3,049 $2,152
2015 -1.21% $1,022 $2,965 $1,654
2016 -1.06% $1,067 $2,734 $1,139
2017 -0.72% $1,882 -$2,767 $125
2018 0.01% $3,080 -$2,129 $2,016
2019 -0.53% $2,101 $2,205 $181
2020 -1.16% $66 $2,918 $1,947
2021 -1.23% $34 $2,741 $1,616

Net Percentage of Banks Tightening Mortgage Lending Standards

The latest responses to the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices show that U.S. banks are still quite willing to extend mortgage credit.

For example, the net percentage of U.S. banks tightening their mortgage lending standards on subprime mortgages is 14.3%. Moreover, with a net -1.9% of respondents tightening their lending standards on government mortgages, more U.S. banks are willing to approve government loan applications than deny them.

For context, the net percentage of U.S. banks tightening their mortgage lending standards on both types of loans peaked at 42.9% and 52.5%, respectively, in Q3 2020. Again, and unsurprisingly, uncertainty surrounding the pandemic was likely the main culprit.

However, as time passed, the net percentage of U.S. banks tightening their mortgage lending standards on government mortgage loans dropped to a low of -6.3% in Q3 2021. Moreover, subprime mortgages now tie their post-pandemic lows set in Q1 2021.

As a result, financing options for potential homeowners remain relatively abundant.

Period: Net % Tightening Subprime Mortgages: Net % Tightening Government Mortgages:
2015:Q1 0.0% -3.3%
2015:Q2 16.7% -12.7%
2015:Q3 0.0% -5.1%
2015:Q4 20.0% 5.6%
2016:Q1 0.0% 0.0%
2016:Q2 0.0% 0.0%
2016:Q3 20.0% -3.6%
2016:Q4 0.0% 0.0%
2017:Q1 0.0% -3.4%
2017:Q2 0.0% -6.9%
2017:Q3 0.0% -3.4%
2017:Q4 25.0% -1.6%
2018:Q1 25.0% -3.3%
2018:Q2 0.0% -1.7%
2018:Q3 0.0% -6.9%
2018:Q4 0.0% -12.1%
2019:Q1 0.0% -1.7%
2019:Q2 0.0% -1.6%
2019:Q3 0.0% -1.7%
2019:Q4 12.5% 1.6%
2020:Q1 0.0% -5.0%
2020:Q2 14.3% -5.6%
2020:Q3 42.9% 52.5%
2020:Q4 33.3% 9.1%
2021:Q1 14.3% 0.0%
2021:Q2 25.0% -5.0%
2021:Q3 25.0% -6.3%
2021:Q4 14.3% -1.9%

Mortgage Payments as a Percentage of Disposable Income

Piggybacking on the previous section, mortgage payments as a percentage of Americans’ disposable income is near an all-time low.

For example, the latest data from the Fed shows that Americans allocated 3.81% of their disposable income to their mortgage payments in Q2 2021. Moreover, the figure has declined by 40% since Q1 2010.

As a result, with Americans’ disposable income rising faster than their mortgage payments, their perceived creditworthiness increased.

Period: Mortgage Payments as % of Disposable Income:
2010:Q1 6.35%
2010:Q2 6.18%
2010:Q3 6.08%
2010:Q4 5.93%
2011:Q1 5.71%
2011:Q2 5.64%
2011:Q3 5.56%
2011:Q4 5.44%
2012:Q1 5.28%
2012:Q2 5.17%
2012:Q3 5.15%
2012:Q4 4.93%
2013:Q1 5.03%
2013:Q2 4.93%
2013:Q3 4.87%
2013:Q4 4.84%
2014:Q1 4.75%
2014:Q2 4.67%
2014:Q3 4.59%
2014:Q4 4.53%
2015:Q1 4.51%
2015:Q2 4.47%
2015:Q3 4.45%
2015:Q4 4.45%
2016:Q1 4.43%
2016:Q2 4.43%
2016:Q3 4.41%
2016:Q4 4.35%
2017:Q1 4.30%
2017:Q2 4.27%
2017:Q3 4.25%
2017:Q4 4.22%
2018:Q1 4.18%
2018:Q2 4.17%
2018:Q3 4.15%
2018:Q4 4.14%
2019:Q1 4.15%
2019:Q2 4.16%
2019:Q3 4.15%
2019:Q4 4.13%
2020:Q1 4.09%
2020:Q2 3.74%
2020:Q3 3.88%
2020:Q4 3.96%
2021:Q1 3.51%
2021:Q2 3.81%

Mortgage Delinquency Rates

As another metric supporting easy lending standards and lower mortgage rates, the latest Fed data shows that U.S. commercial banks’ delinquency rate on single-family residential mortgages fell to an all-time low of 2.27% in the third quarter of 2021. Moreover, the metric has declined by 80% since Q1 2010 and is down by 3% from its pre-pandemic level (2.35% in Q4 2019).

Thus, depressed delinquency rates show that American mortgage borrowers are rewarding creditors for their looser lending standards.

Period: Commercial Banks’ Delinquency Rate on Single-Family Residential Mortgages:
2010:Q1 11.55%
2010:Q2 11.08%
2010:Q3 10.60%
2010:Q4 10.36%
2011:Q1 10.34%
2011:Q2 10.54%
2011:Q3 10.54%
2011:Q4 10.26%
2012:Q1 10.34%
2012:Q2 10.45%
2012:Q3 10.48%
2012:Q4 10.02%
2013:Q1 9.73%
2013:Q2 9.31%
2013:Q3 8.66%
2013:Q4 8.29%
2014:Q1 7.78%
2014:Q2 7.43%
2014:Q3 7.05%
2014:Q4 6.50%
2015:Q1 6.25%
2015:Q2 5.81%
2015:Q3 5.39%
2015:Q4 5.09%
2016:Q1 4.79%
2016:Q2 4.58%
2016:Q3 4.39%
2016:Q4 4.15%
2017:Q1 3.90%
2017:Q2 3.67%
2017:Q3 3.64%
2017:Q4 3.58%
2018:Q1 3.48%
2018:Q2 3.21%
2018:Q3 2.98%
2018:Q4 2.84%
2019:Q1 2.69%
2019:Q2 2.59%
2019:Q3 2.43%
2019:Q4 2.35%
2020:Q1 2.35%
2020:Q2 2.53%
2020:Q3 2.81%
2020:Q4 2.76%
2021:Q1 2.69%
2021:Q2 2.47%
2021:Q3 2.27%

How We Conducted The Study

ElitePersonalFinance always has up-to-date studies.

Our goal is to consolidate the information and present the findings in a way that’s easy to understand by parsing through the latest data from reliable sources. If you enjoyed the study, please provide your feedback. Moreover, if there is anything that we missed or anything that you believe needs updating, please let us know, and we will respond promptly.

Conclusion

While U.S. mortgage rates have stayed dormant for some time, the slight uptick over the last year reflects the recent hawkish stance by the Fed. For example, with the FOMC’s median dot plot projecting three interest rate hikes in 2022, a higher U.S. Federal Funds Rate often results in higher U.S. mortgage rates.

As a result, barring a material setback in the U.S. economy, average mortgage rates will likely increase in 2022.

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